For the GPS Origins test I uploaded my raw data from AncestryDNA (v1). Here are my gene pool percentages:
# 1 Fennoscandia 19.8%
Origin: Peaks in the Iceland and Norway and declines in Finland, England, and France
# 2 Western Siberia 12.9%
Origin: Peaks in Krasnoyarsk Krai and declines towards east Russia
# 3 Sardinia 12.4%
Origin: Peaks in Sardinia and declines in weaker [sic] in Italy, Greece, Albania, and The Balkans
# 4 Orkney Islands 11.8%
Origin: Peaks in the Orkney islands and declines in England, France, Germany, Belarus, and Poland
# 5 Southern France 11.3%
Origin: Peaks in south France and declines in north France, England, Orkney islands, and Scandinavia
# 6 Basque Country 11.2%
Origin: Peaks in France and Spain Basque regions and declines in Spain, France, and Germany
# 7 Southeastern India 9.1%
Origin: Endemic to south eastern india with residues in Pakistan
# 8 Tuva 6%
Origin: Peaks in south Siberia (Russians: Tuvinian) and declines in North Mongolia
# 9 Northern India 4%
Origin: Peaks in North India (Dharkars, Kanjars) and declines in Pakistan
# 10 Western South America 1.1%
Origin: Peaks in Peru, Mexico, and North America and declines in Eastern Russia
# 11 Central America 0.2%
Origin: Peaks in Mexico and Central America with residues in Peru
# 12 Northwestern Africa 0.2%
Origin: Peaks in Algeria and declines in Morocco and Tunisia
In the second part of the test I am given a map showing my two migration routes with accompanying migration stories.
You can see an interactive version of my migration routes
here. You can view a PDF file with my full GPS Origins report
here.
For the blue migration route I am told that my ancestors came from around Croatia prior to 211 AD. They then moved to Ireland at some point before 211 AD and moved to England between 211 AD and 1950 AD. According to my red migration route my ancestors came from Russia prior to 659 AD and arrived in north-western Russia between 659 AD and 1366 AD.
Ann Turner's GPS Origins results
The next report has been shared with me by Ann Turner. Ann's known ancestry is 3/16 German and 1/16 Irish from the early 1800s. The remainder is colonial American, and presumably English. Ann has also tested at 23andMe (v2 and V4), AncestryDNA and Family Tree DNA. Here are her 23andMe results at the speculative setting:
At AncestryDNA Ann's results are: Europe 98% and West Asia 1%. Europe is broken down as follows: Scandinavia 50%, Europe West 15%, Iberian Peninsula 12%, Ireland 12%, Great Britain 6%, trace regions 3%.
With Family Tree DNA's Family Finder test Ann's MyOrigins results are: European 97%, Central South Asia 2%. Europe is broken down into: Western and Central Europe 44%, Scandinavia 35%, British Isles 16%, Southern Europe 1%.
Ann uploaded her AncestryDNA data (v1) to GPS Origins. Here are Ann's gene pools:
# 1 Fennoscandia 22%
Origin: Peaks in the Iceland and Norway and declines in Finland, England, and France
# 2 Southern France 15.5%
Origin: Peaks in south France and declines in north France, England, Orkney islands, and Scandinavia
# 3 Western Siberia 10.9%
Origin: Peaks in Krasnoyarsk Krai and declines towards east Russia
# 4 Southeastern India 10.7%
Origin: Endemic to south eastern india with residues in Pakistan
# 5 Orkney Islands 10.6%
Origin: Peaks in the Orkney islands and declines in England, France, Germany, Belarus, and Poland
# 6 Basque Country 10%
Origin: Peaks in France and Spain Basque regions and declines in Spain, France, and Germany
# 7 Sardinia 9.3%
Origin: Peaks in Sardinia and declines in weaker in Italy, Greece, Albania, and The Balkans
# 8 Tuva 7%
Origin: Peaks in south Siberia (Russians: Tuvinian) and declines in North Mongolia
# 9 Northern India 2.5%
Origin: Peaks in North India (Dharkars, Kanjars) and declines in Pakistan
# 10 The Southern Levant 1.4%
Origin: This gene pool is localized to Israel with residues in Syria
# 11 Western South America 0.2%
Origin: Peaks in Peru, Mexico, and North America and declines in Eastern Russia
Here are Ann's migration routes.
You can see an interactive version of Ann's migration routes
here. The PDF File with Ann's full GPS Origins report can be seen
here.
Ann's migration stories show that her ancestors came from Greece prior to 696 AD, and from Russia prior to 696 AD. Both of Ann's routes converge on the same location in Germany some time between 696 AD and 1935 AD.
Piya Changmai's GPS Origins results
From the above two results it would appear that this test is not very helpful for people of Northern European ancestry. Let's now have a look at some results for someone with Asian ancestry. Piya Changmai has kindly shared his results with me. According to his family history Piya has 5/8 of his ancestry from Thailand and 3/8 from Southern China. He describes his ancestry as follows:
I have a Chinese paternal great-grandfather, so he contributed 1/8 of my ancestry. I have also a Chinese maternal grandmother, so her contribution is 2/8. Other ancestors are Thai and Laotian ethnics from Thailand. Thai and Laotian are closely related ethnics, like Czech and Slovak. In summary, I have Chinese ancestry 2/8+1/8 = 3/8 and Thailand (Thai and Laotian) ancestry 5/8. Both Chinese ancestors are from Southern part of China, also reflected by Y and mt haplogroups (O2a1a and F4b, respectively).
Piya has also tested at 23andMe. Here are his 23andMe results at the standard setting:
Here are Piya's 23andMe results at the speculative setting:
Piva uploaded his 23andMe (v4) data to GPS Origins. Here are Piya's gene pool results:
# 1 Austronesian Oceania 33.4%
Origin: Peaks in Korea, Chinese (Han), Mynamar, Japan, and Vietnam and declines towards West China and India
# 2 Austronesian Southeast Asia 27.1%
Origin: Peaks in Taiwan and Malay and declines in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and South China
# 3 Central America 6.4%
Origin: Peaks in Mexico and Central America with residues in Peru
# 4 Sino-Tibetan and Hmongic Southeast Asia 5.8%
Origin: Peaks in East Asia, Central-south China (Lahu, Naxi, Yi) and declines towards India
# 5 Tuva 4.2%
Origin: Peaks in south Siberia (Russians: Tuvinian) and declines in North Mongolia
# 6 Central Southern China: Yunnan and Guangxi 4%
Origin: Peaks in East Asia (East) and Chinese (She, Dai) with residues in Central south China (Han, Miao, Tujia)
# 7 Western Siberia 3.2%
Origin: Peaks in Krasnoyarsk Krai and declines towards east Russia
# 8 Pima County: The Sonora 3.1%
Origin: Peaks in Central-North America and declines towards Greenland and Eskimos
# 9 Southeastern India 2.9%
Origin: Endemic to south eastern india with residues in Pakistan
# 10 Papuan New Guinea 1.8%
Origin: Peaks in Papua New Guinea and declines in Australia
# 11 Bougainville 1.6%
Origin: Peaks in Bougainville and declines in Australia
# 12 Southern France 1.3%
Origin: Peaks in south France and declines in north France, England, Orkney islands, and Scandinavia
# 13 Southwestern India 1.3%
Origin: Endemic to Indian (Pulayar) with residues in India (Paniya, Savara, Bengali, Juang, Savara, Ho, Bonda)
# 14 Northern India 1.1%
Origin: Peaks in North India (Dharkars, Kanjars) and declines in Pakistan
# 15 Western South America 1%
Origin: Peaks in Peru, Mexico, and North America and declines in Eastern Russia
# 16 Northern Mongolia and Eastern Siberia 1%
Origin: Peaks in North Mongolia and declines in Siberia
# 17 Northwestern Africa 0.5%
Origin: Peaks in Algeria and declines in Morocco and Tunisia
# 18 The Southern Levant 0.3%
Origin: This gene pool is localized to Israel with residues in Syria
Here is Piya's migration map.
You can see an interactive version of Piya's migration map
here. (His report is under the pseudonym Mee Panda.) A PDF file with Piya's full GPS Origins results is available
here.
Both of Piya's migration routes start in the same place in Kyrgyzstan. Piya is told that his ancestors came from Kyrgyzstan prior to 1183 AD. His ancestors on the northern route arrived in northern China between 1183 AD and 1617 AD. Piya's southern migration route ends up in Singapore and arrived there some time between 1150 AD and 1751 AD.
Ezgi Altinisik's GPS Origins results
The final set of results I'll be looking at are from Ezgi Altinisik. She is from Turkey. Her paternal grandfather was born in Bulgaria and her paternal grandmother was
born in Romania but both were Turkish and moved back to Anatolia around 1930. Her maternal grandmother is from
Siverek in Turkey. Her maternal grandfather is from
Samsun on the north coast of Turkey. As far as she knows, all her maternal ancestors have resided in Turkey for a long time.
Ezgi has also tested at 23andMe. Here are her 23andMe results at the standard level:
Here are her 23andMe results at the speculative level.
Ezgi uploaded her 23andMe data (v4) to GPS Origins. Here are Ezgi's gene pool results:
# 1 Southern France 14.6%
Origin: Peaks in south France and declines in north France, England, Orkney islands, and Scandinavia
# 2 Fennoscandia 14.6%
Origin: Peaks in the Iceland and Norway and declines in Finland, England, and France
# 3 Southeastern India 12.8%
Origin: Endemic to south eastern india with residues in Pakistan
# 4 Western Siberia 10.9%
Origin: Peaks in Krasnoyarsk Krai and declines towards east Russia
# 5 Orkney Islands 9.7%
Origin: Peaks in the Orkney islands and declines in England, France, Germany, Belarus, and Poland
# 6 Tuva 7.9%
Origin: Peaks in south Siberia (Russians: Tuvinian) and declines in North Mongolia
# 7 Sardinia 7.8%
Origin: Peaks in Sardinia and declines in weaker in Italy, Greece, Albania, and The Balkans
# 8 Arabia 5.7%
Origin: Peaks in Saudi Arabia and Yemen and declines in Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt
# 9 The Southern Levant 5.5%
Origin: This gene pool is localized to Israel with residues in Syria
# 10 Basque Country 3.9%
Origin: Peaks in France and Spain Basque regions and declines in Spain, France, and Germany
# 11 Northern India 3.8%
Origin: Peaks in North India (Dharkars, Kanjars) and declines in Pakistan
# 12 Austronesian Southeast Asia 1.3%
Origin: Peaks in Taiwan and Malay and declines in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and South China
# 13 Central America 0.8%
Origin: Peaks in Mexico and Central America with residues in Peru
# 14 Western South America 0.8%
Origin: Peaks in Peru, Mexico, and North America and declines in Eastern Russia
Here is Ezgi's migration map.
Ezgi's interactive migration map can be seen
here. A PDF file with Ezgi's full GPS Origins results is available
here.
The blue migration route shows that Ezgi's ancestors came from Russia prior to 1244 AD. Her ancestors then passed through Turkey on their DNA journey and ended up in Crete some time between 1244 AD and 1557 AD. According to the red migration route Ezgi's ancestors came from Turkey prior to 1037 AD, and arrived in Armenia some time between 1037 AD and 1527 AD.
This is only a very small sample of four test results, but if these results are representative it would appear that the GPS Origins test is not very helpful.
The gene pool results are very strange and correlate poorly with the results we might expect for the reported ethnicities. For instance, both North European persons (Ann and I) and the Turkish person (Ezgi) in this small sample have unexpectedly high and very similar percentages of ancestry components from Siberia (18% - 19%) and India (13 - 17%). The model seems to overestimate these components for all West Eurasians. The components from Orkney (9.7% - 11.8%) and Sardinia (7.8% - 12.4%) are also similar in these three individuals.
The Thai person (Piya) has an unexpectedly high component of around 10% Native American, but only just over 5% from India. Both Ann and I, who have recent all-European ancestry, came out with more than double this Indian component. We would expect much more Indian ancestry in a Thai person as compared to a European person, based on the history of Thailand and recent genetic research (
Mörseburg et al 2016).
The maps do not always correspond with the countries in the gene pools. Fennoscandia is supposed to encompass Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and "a part of Russia known as the Kola Peninsula". However, on the map it covers Iceland, Norway, Finland, Britain and France but excludes Sweden and Denmark. The map for the Western Siberian gene pool covers the whole of Russia. The Austronesian Oceania gene pool seems to be misnamed given its geographical distribution and probably should be renamed as Northeast Asia. Only Korea, Japan, Vietnam and Myanmar (Burma) are highlighted on the map yet these countries are not in Oceania and the people do not speak any Austronesian languages. China is missing from the map, although the text states that the component peaks in Han Chinese, among other populations. Pavel Flegontov, a geneticist at the University of Ostrava in the Czech Republic, tells me that in all other ADMIXTURE analyses he's seen, this Northeast Asian component has a much wider distribution in Siberia and much lower percentages in Myanmar and Vietnam. He suggests that if the components really have the distributions shown on the maps, that clearly demonstrates that GPS Origins reports artefacts of an overly complex admixture model with 36 components.
According to the legend on the migration maps "Although the Migration Patterns represent your Maternal and Paternal DNA route, we cannot differentiate which route is specifically your parents’ individual route at this time." However, the GPS Origins test does not phase the genetic data (
phasing is the process of sorting the alleles onto the maternal and paternal chromosomes) so it is not clear how the paternal and maternal routes are defined in the first place. If an individual has reported ancestry from predominantly one region then surely we would expect the migration routes to be broadly similar for both the maternal and paternal lines.
The co-ordinates are supposed to represent places where "significant genetic mixture took place at the gene pool level", but the proposed migration routes are at times bizarre and do not correspond with historical records. For example, there are no large-scale historical migrations from Croatia to Ireland, from Kyrgyzstan to Singapore, or from Russia to Crete. The precision of the geographical co-ordinates down to three decimal places gives a false sense of accuracy, but the methodology is opaque.
The concept of the dual migration pathways is difficult to understand. If we go back one thousand years, in theory we all have over 8,000 million genealogical ancestors. It is inconceivable that half of these ancestors would all go off on their travels in one direction and the other half would go in a different direction.